The discussion about the exchange rate has returned with force in Argentina because market projections mark, once again, an uncomfortable path for the real economy: the official dollar would clearly lag behind inflation throughout 2026. And the longer this dynamic lasts, the more the dilemma between disinflation and competitiveness will be accentuated. In the Casa Rosada, they maintain that there is no room to sacrifice stability for political expediency and that freeing up the foreign exchange market prematurely would open the door to a new run on the currency. These numbers paint a picture of an industry under pressure, not only due to the weakness of the domestic market but also due to an exchange rate that takes away its competitive edge. Construction also does not, for now, provide a solid rebound signal. In parallel, different private estimates placed the accumulated inflation of 2026 at around 29.1%, a gap that once again sets off the alarm about the exchange rate lag and about the cost that this strategy can have for production. The data is not minor because it consolidates an idea that already circulates in the city and in much of the business fabric: the Government seems determined to continue using a very calm dollar as an anti-inflationary anchor, even when that begins to generate growing tensions in sectors that live from exporting, substituting imports, or competing with foreign goods. The latest Market Expectations Survey from the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic estimates a monthly inflation of 3% for March and projects a nominal exchange rate of 1,700 pesos for December, equivalent to an annual increase of 17.4%. That is, the fear is not so much about an avalanche already consummated in the aggregate numbers, but about the combined effect of a cheap dollar, greater openness, and a local economy that does not finish recovering muscle to compete. The other variable that the market is now watching is inflation. This caution explains why the Government feels comfortable with a dormant dollar, improving reserves, and an upper band that is not even up for discussion. On Thursday, April 9, the Central Bank bought 281 million dollars, the largest daily acquisition in over a year, and brought the 2026 total to 4,964 million. In other words, the market is far from any sign of a sharp correction, and the economic team is moving with a caution that reveals it does not intend to validate, for now, a jump in the exchange rate. The picture of the last rounds reinforces that reading. Today, the official exchange scheme continues to show a quotation well below the ceiling of the band: the BCRA reported a reference wholesale dollar of 1,383.23 pesos for April 9, while the upper limit of the band for April 10 was set at 1,671.07 pesos. However, such intervention did not significantly alter the exchange mood: the wholesale dollar even fell back, and gross reserves again placed them above 45,000 million dollars. If that number returns to be close to 3%, the scheme will be even more exposed: with prices not falling as fast as the ruling party expected and a nominal dollar running at a slower speed, the exchange rate appreciation will continue to deepen. The problem begins when this financial calm becomes too expensive for the economy that produces goods and employment. That is where the numbers of economic activity begin to speak for themselves. The BCRA reports a monthly increase of 2.9% for February, while the REM raised the expectation for March to 3%. But it also leaves in sight the cost of the strategy: while the financial front breathes, the real economy accumulates signs of fatigue. In the business discourse and in much of the market, the concern about greater external competition, driven by trade opening and an appreciated peso, appears strongly. The question is no longer just if the dollar will continue to lose against inflation. In February, the Synthetic Indicator of Construction Activity reported a year-on-year drop of 0.7% and a seasonally adjusted monthly drop of 1.3%, according to INDEC itself. The latest INDEC report on the manufacturing industry showed in February a year-on-year drop of 8.7% and a seasonally adjusted retreat of 4% compared to January. Among the most affected sectors are Food and beverages, with a 6.9% year-on-year drop; Textiles, clothing, leather and footwear, with a collapse of 22.6%; and Motor vehicles and other transport equipment, with a plummet of 24%. If to this is added a tax pressure that remains high and internal costs that do not ease at the desired pace, the picture for a large part of the productive apparatus becomes even tighter. At this point, the debate about imports deserves an important nuance. The political signal that this movement leaves is clear: for the Government, supply comes in, it accumulates foreign exchange and can sustain the pax cambiaria. The accumulated of the first bimestre barely showed an increase of 0.3%, which confirms that another key sector for employment and for the movement of the economy continues to advance with enormous fragility. The underlying question is how much longer this scheme can last without industry, construction, and receptive tourism beginning to pass a heavier political and social bill. The blow was widespread: fourteen of the sixteen industrial divisions showed declines. But the latest official foreign trade data do not yet show a general explosion of imports: in February, purchases abroad fell 11.8% year-on-year and totaled 5,174 million dollars. The next official IPC data will be known on April 14. Buenos Aires, April 10, 2026 - Total News Agency - TNA -.
